Surrender Bet It's true that surrendering to cover the push takes away some ways to win your hand. But if your opponent has the high then winning your own hand is irrelevant. If you have the low while your opponent has the high you lose if your opponent wins his hand unless you have enough money out to possibly cover the double. With the bet of 15K the way you play your hand is critical, especially if your opponent responded in secret. You surrender if your chance of losing is greater than your opponent's chance of winning. You double for 2500 if your chance of winning that is better than your opponent's chance of losing or pushing a single bet. Another thing to think about is that if BR1 bet 15K in the open, it's probably wise to put BR2 on the high, giving you the low anyway.
1 cent more Great logic Monkeysystem. But, it might be a good time for Br2 to bluff a max. bet while betting a min. If he used this reverse stratergy he might catch Br1 thinking that he doesn't have to surrender to get the low back. If I was sure that Br2 was going to bet the max. I would bet the max. To cover BJ and dd. And still be able surrender into the low. Thanks, tgun P.S. I'm just trying to keep the posts comming.
more of "It depends..." A few reflections on this thread. Nice teaser and excellent answer by Arlalik (post#4). I felt like his post was either missed or not acknowledged enough. Except Joe’s, who wrote that Arlalik’s suggestions were great but somehow didn’t address the problem completely and then Joe had focused on other aspects of the situation. If I were the author of the answer I could have been asking myself: What part of my post they didn’t understand? The following posts showed me how many various interpretations could be applied in the search for optimum plays, and how even a relatively straightforward question could lead into personalized excursions exploring the subject – and that’s what I am exercising myself now. But before I move on I would like to commend Arlalik for his answer. It approached the problem by showing the range of good bets and the reasons for them, then narrowed it down to the precisely best play based on given information, and using specific numbers and supporting it with tournament bj specific situations. Great job. When we are trying to find a good, better or the best play for a specific situation, with concrete numbers, we can try to answer it by assuming that we are one or both players. We can try to find the optimal play for one of the players assuming that the opponent’s play/response will be either: Computer perfect Statistically average (based on experience from all tournaments) Statistically average (based on particular location previous experiences) The player’s and the real circumstances specific, and then we assume one most likely play (by our deductions) plays weighed by inferenced chances of occurrence. Each approach can be valid but can give different answers. The amalgam of the approaches is the most common happening at real casinos. I will show a few interesting interpretations using Joe’s example and some of the other posters responses. We will have to be careful not to mix conclusions of different approaches indiscriminately. Also, even computer aided plays will not necessary be uniform. There may be a cat and mouse type of game going on. S. Yama
I Missed It S. Yama's absolutely correct. I missed the significance of Arlalik's logic. You don't need to bet as much as double the lead minus a chip to get all the benefits of it. Here's the formula: By betting only 1-1/2 times the lead minus a chip or half chip you can also cover the possibility of needing to insure. If needed you insure to cover your overbet, which means an insurance bet of 1/4 of your lead rounded up if needed to the nearest half chip. You can still surrender to cover the push. You have to lead by >1/4 max bet to be able to make this flexible bet. If you're forced to insure you won't have enough money left for the double down to cover the opponent. In EBJ that means a lead of 6,500 to 8,500 or a final table lead of 25,500 to 33,500. With leads higher than these you can take the high with surrender back to cover the push. If your opponent is reckless/aggressive just throw the max bet out there quickly.
