UBT Tournament Teaser

Discussion in 'Blackjack Tournament Strategy' started by Joep2, May 17, 2006.

Page 3 of 4
  1. TXtourplayer

    TXtourplayer Executive Member

    Back to bed...LOL

    Thanks Ken, I caught it now. The doctors right, I don't need to be going anywhere for a while and after missing that question going to play in casinos tournaments for sure...LOL.
     
    TXtourplayer, May 22, 2006
    #41
  2. tirle_bj

    tirle_bj Member

    DD on hard 20

    Good job, Ken! Here's the next question.
    Actually DD (78.79%) is 1.77% better than Stand (77.02%). Arlalik and I just figured out the optimum playing strategy for splitting tens in this case.
    Here is the question:
    You've calculated two different scenarios:
    - split but not hit (74.92%)
    - split and hit 12 but not 13 (75.17%)
    Who can tell us - does the best strategy for Split make any better than Stand? And what is the probability to advance?
    Here is the hint...
    On the first hand we have hard 12, hit and busted out after getting T.
    According to second approach we need to hit second hand 'til 13. So if say we have one busted hand and the other 13 thrugh 16 what are our chances to advance?... O%.
    You guys have until tomorrow midnight, after that the answer will be posted. Correct answer will win a Dinner for two.
     
    tirle_bj, May 22, 2006
    #42
  3. Reachy

    Reachy New Member

    Not sure whether any of you guys are awake....

    I'd like to have a stab at your question Tirle-BJ but I'm not sure I understand what you want us to figure out. I guess it's about 4am in the US as I write this so I may have to wait for the answer but are you asking whether there is a different strategy for splitting that gives better odds than standing? Or are you asking what we should do with the second split hand assuming the first one has busted?

    regards

    reachy
     
    Last edited: May 23, 2006
    Reachy, May 23, 2006
    #43
  4. S. Yama

    S. Yama Active Member

    the second hand

    Reachy, just in case you read this before tirle gets up and have a chance to answer.
    It is about what to do with the second hand.
    Aftre busting the first hand, do you hit the second one untill its total is 13, or 14, or 15, and so on?

    Another good one, guys!

    S. Y.
     
    S. Yama, May 23, 2006
    #44
  5. tirle_bj

    tirle_bj Member

    both hands

    Thanks for comments, Yama. Actually we need the optimum playing strategy for both hands and related probability to advance.
     
    tirle_bj, May 23, 2006
    #45
  6. Reachy

    Reachy New Member

    so....

    Do we know what hands we've been dealt after the split?
     
    Reachy, May 23, 2006
    #46
  7. tirle_bj

    tirle_bj Member

    well...

    Reachy, in USA after splitting hands we play out first hand first and then second. The only exception is (A,A).
    You need to find out how to play first hand and then based on its outcome how to play second.
    Good luck.
     
    tirle_bj, May 23, 2006
    #47
  8. Reachy

    Reachy New Member

    Is the first hand T,2? That's what I'm not clear on. Or are you looking for a best overall strategy for a range of hands?

    Sorry.

    Reachy
     
    Reachy, May 23, 2006
    #48
  9. KenSmith

    KenSmith Administrator Staff Member

    He's asking for the best strategy for whatever hands arise.
    You'll need to determine the best strategy for hand one. (Do you stand at 12? Do you stand at 13?)

    Then, you'll have to determine the best strategy for hand two given the total of hand one. So, assume hand one is 12, how do you play hand two. If hand one busts, how do you play hand two, etc.

    These kinds of questions can quickly get unmanageable for a spreadsheet. It is possible that playing hand two optimally might change what the decision should be for hand one.

    I haven't tackled this one yet because I'm busy with other projects today.
     
    KenSmith, May 23, 2006
    #49
  10. Reachy

    Reachy New Member

    Thanks Ken

    Thought that was what I was supposed to do. Massive job!!! Need more time Tirle-BJ!!!!

    Incidentally I think I've figured out the infinite deck thing. I've made a table in excell that seems to work. It comes out with the same figures as in your other post.

    Cheers

    Reachy
     
    Reachy, May 23, 2006
    #50
  11. S. Yama

    S. Yama Active Member

    That's what I suspected but, didn't have time to do the numbers.
    Wonder what is the result if we hit not only twelve, but also thirteen, (yep, let's check hitting fourteen, too) on the first hand, and then use the "special technique" for playing the second hand.

    S. Y.
     
    S. Yama, May 23, 2006
    #51
  12. S. Yama

    S. Yama Active Member

    ain't bj tournaments great?

    You open one door only to discover two more.

    Also, how to play the second hand if the first one is 21, 20, 19, and 18.
    I think, without doing the numbers, that we are stacked with plying "no bust" strategy on the second hand if the first one is seventeen.

    S. Y.
     
    S. Yama, May 23, 2006
    #52
  13. tirle_bj

    tirle_bj Member

    time extention

    Well guys, your time is running out, so we're adding another 12 hours with our complements. (May 24th, noon PST)
    You're on the right track, Yama - keep going.
     
    tirle_bj, May 23, 2006
    #53
  14. Reachy

    Reachy New Member

    My head has just imploded...

    I need to go to bed now. I gave it my best shot but I just don't think I can figure it out. I thought I had sussed the infinite deck calculations but I'm not so sure now. It's the 4 x 10 value cards that bother me. Need Deep Blue computing power...

    Anyway, after all that, my plan. If hand 2 is 17+ stand on both hands. Otherwise hit hand 1 to 17+. If you bust, DD on hand 2 regardless (i'm sure the odds are better for DD than hitting or standing after some of the recent posts!!). If successful in hitting to 17+ on hand 1 do not bust on Hand 2 i.e. stand. So basically what Mr Yama said (with a couple of bells on!)

    Must sleep!!!!

    Cheers

    Reachy
     
    Reachy, May 23, 2006
    #54
  15. KenSmith

    KenSmith Administrator Staff Member

    Reachy, based on your last post, you may be confused about the dealing order after a split.

    Split TT, and you'll be dealt one card on the first hand and then you'll have to decide how to play it. Once you stand, you'll get a card on the second ten and proceed from there. In other words, you don't get a sneak preview of hand two before deciding anything on hand one.

    Since tirle extended the deadline, I'm working on it.
    So far, I have determined the optimal hand2 strategy given the final hand1 total. Here's what I have for that:

    If hand1 is stiff, hit hand2 to 17 or better.
    If hand1 is 17, hit hand2 to 16 or better.
    If hand1 is 18, hit hand2 to 13 or better.
    If hand1 is 19,20, or 21, hit hand2 to 12 or better. (Don't bust.)
    If hand1 busts, hit hand2 to 18 or better. (Yep, hit hard 17.)

    Now I still have to backtrack and determine the optimal strategy for hand one, and figure the overall chance of advancing.
     
    KenSmith, May 23, 2006
    #55
  16. KenSmith

    KenSmith Administrator Staff Member

    tirle, I think I have it, and the answer to your question: "Is optimal-split strategy better than standing?" is No.

    Restating tirle's problem:
    BR2 has 262K, bet 100K, doubled a hard 5 for 90K. (Has 190K bet and is stiff now.)
    BR1 has 265K, bet 100K and has a pair of tens.
    Dealer has 10 up.

    For BR1, Doubling for 90K is the best play (78.79%), Standing with 20 is second best (77.02%), and splitting with optimal play post-split is third best (76.34%).

    If you split the tens, the best strategy is to hit the first hand to 14 or higher.
    Then use the strategy I mentioned in my last post for hand two:
    If hand1 is stiff, hit hand2 to 17 or better.
    If hand1 is 17, hit hand2 to 16 or better.
    If hand1 is 18, hit hand2 to 13 or better.
    If hand1 is 19,20, or 21, hit hand2 to 12 or better. (Don't bust.)
    If hand1 busts, hit hand2 to 18 or better. (Yep, hit hard 17.)

    This whole process succeeds in advancing 76.34% of the time.
    Infinite deck used throughout.
     
    KenSmith, May 23, 2006
    #56
  17. Reachy

    Reachy New Member

    I was confused

    My only experience is Global Player and they deal both hands so that's what I based it on. Oops! Now after a good nights sleep I'm going to have another stab at it basedon the information in your 2 posts Ken.

    Thing is I told my wife that I was going to win a meal for 2 in Vegas. I'm going to have pay for it myself now!!

    cheers

    Reachy
     
    Reachy, May 24, 2006
    #57
  18. tirle_bj

    tirle_bj Member

    Bravo!

    Great job, Ken, no questions asked. The Dinner for two is granted.

    Actually we're very glad to have the same results as a confirmation. The only difference is probability.
    We got 76.08% (infinitive deck). Of course, it's minor, but for 100% satisfaction here's how we've got to that:

    On a first hand by hitting to 14 we have the following probabilities:

    P(14) = P(15) = ... = P(19) = P(21) = 8.92%; P(20) = 32.00%;
    P(bust) = 5.56%

    Now, If we have a stiff on a first hand then by hitting second hand to 17 we get 59.83% to advance. So, if the first hand = 14, 15, 16 then
    P(adv) = 59.83% each
    If the first hand = 17, then by hitting second hand to 16 we get
    P(adv) = 60.78%
    If the first hand = 18, then by hitting second hand to 13 we get
    P(adv) = 67.34%
    If the first hand = 19,20,21 then by hitting second hand to 12 (don't bust)
    we get accordingly:
    P(adv) = 73.71% (first hand is 19); P(adv) = 96.26% (firts hand is 20);
    P(adv) = 100% (firts hand is 21)
    And finally if the first hand is bust then by hitting secont hand to 18(!)
    P(adv) = 42.19%
    Based on that we have:
    8.92%*(59.83*3 + 60.78 + 67.34 + 73.71 + 100) + 32%*96.26 +
    + 5.56%*42.19 = 76.08%

    It would be nice to see your numbers for comparision.

    Hope to see you soon at dinner table in Vegas or anywhere else.
     
    tirle_bj, May 24, 2006
    #58
  19. KenSmith

    KenSmith Administrator Staff Member

    I did find a few differences. Here's my comparable list.
    h1=16, hit to 17, p=59.83
    h1=17, hit to 16, p=62.56
    h1=18, hit to 13, p=67.37
    h1=19, hit to 12, p=73.74
    h1=20, hit to 12, p=96.55
    h1=21, hit to 12, p=100.00
    h1=Bust, hit to 18, p=42.19

    In particular, we differ on h1=17 and h1=20.
    The others are close enough to be rounding differences.
     
    KenSmith, May 24, 2006
    #59
  20. tirle_bj

    tirle_bj Member

    bravo encore

    Well, here we go...
    You're correct on
    h1=20, p = 96.55
    12/13*96.26% + 1/13*100% = 96.55%
    ...and also on
    h1=17, p = 60.79
    10.35%*35.05 + 10.35%*35.05 + 10.35%*47.12 + 10.35%*59.19 +
    +33.43%*96.26 = 60.78%? OOPS we missed (h2=bust * D=17) =
    =14.82%*12.07 = 1.79%, so 60.78 + 1.79 = 62.56% WOW
     
    tirle_bj, May 24, 2006
    #60
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