What Shall You Do

Ken - OK I know now that hitting is the right play but surely to surrender is still better than splitting? If BR2 pushes you defintely win with a surrender. Why take the risk that you might lose on both hands if you split?

 

Spliting A-A vs.8

Reachy,
when we split A-A vs dealer's 8, probability to lose both hands is less than 20% ( about 19.2% to be exact).That means we do not advance 20% plus some cases when dealer makes 17 and we don't win (that's about 6%) or makes 18 and we lose 1 bet (about 2.5%).
So the total Probability to advance is 100-(19.2+6+2.5)=72.3%.

When we Surrender we hope BR2 push or lose which is Dealer's 18;19;20;21
That is 12.86+35.93+6.94+6.94=62.67% (see Tirle_BJ's Chart).

I hope this helps.

 

Brilliant!!!

Thanks

Reachy