what would you do?

Discussion in 'Blackjack Tournament Strategy' started by tgun, Aug 14, 2007.

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  1. London Colin

    London Colin Top Member

    Yelping is my response to my own stupid mistakes. It's only when the cards seem to be conspiring against me, defying the laws of probability to deny me my victory, that I resort to violence against inanimate objects. (So that's quite often, really. :))

    Or, looking at it another way, if you are more than about 30% sure that they will follow, then it becomes the better play. Trouble is, I never have a clue how sure I am.

    [I initially said 70% above, thinking 0.7 * 0.8 = 0.56, but then it occurred to me that you can still win when you are wrong. So I changed it to 30%, which represents (0.3 * 0.8) + (0.7 * 0.46) = 0.56. Does that make sense?]
     
    Last edited: Aug 14, 2007
    London Colin, Aug 14, 2007
    #21
  2. LeftNut

    LeftNut Top Member

    A nearby store sells cheap TV remotes for $4. I'm on a first name basis with the clerks there. :laugh: :laugh: :laugh:
     
    LeftNut, Aug 14, 2007
    #22
  3. Monkeysystem

    Monkeysystem Top Member Staff Member

    More Like 50/50

    You're only >70% likely to win if the opponent matches your max lead bet, not 80%. This is because most of the casual players will double when it's not BS to do so. Forced doubles played accurately have a 30% chance. When played inaccurately they have <30% chance. Therefore you can assume your chance of winning in this case is 1 - <30% = >70%.

    If the opponent has the low and can double for the high, and plays it accurately your chance of winning is 46%. If your opponent plays it with less than perfect accuracy your chance of winning is >46%

    If you assume a 50/50 chance the opponent will match your max bet then your chance is calculated as follows:

    (0.5 * >70% + 0.5 * >46%)/2 = >58%

    If you assume only a fair (1/3) chance your opponent will match your max bet lead off your chance is:

    (0.33 * >70% + 0.67 * >46%)/2 = >54%

    This is probably less than the 56% you get from taking the low.
     
    Monkeysystem, Aug 19, 2007
    #23
  4. London Colin

    London Colin Top Member

    Thanks for that

    In particular,
    Wong doesn't give a figure for the success rate of the strong variation of Curt's Revenge. Interesting to note that BR2 has quite an edge in that situation.

    Any idea what the figures are if BR2 acts first, and so has to compare their chance of winning a DD, versus BR1's chance of losing? (Again, assuming it is played accurately.)
     
    London Colin, Aug 20, 2007
    #24
  5. Monkeysystem

    Monkeysystem Top Member Staff Member

    Example 19

    It's in example 19.
     
    Monkeysystem, Jun 28, 2008
    #25
  6. London Colin

    London Colin Top Member

    I see you followed my link

    So it is! I never noticed that.

    His 55% is reassuringly close to the 54% I inferred from your earlier post.
     
    London Colin, Jun 28, 2008
    #26
  7. Monkeysystem

    Monkeysystem Top Member Staff Member

    Close enough for government work (something I have decades of experience in!) :laugh:
     
    Monkeysystem, Jun 28, 2008
    #27
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