What would you do...

Who's who

The switch from 'player' to 'BR' notation seems to have caused some confusion. Surely you were BR2 (player 3), hitting to get a decent hand in order for a chance of beating BR1?

i.e. -
Player 1 (BR1) got a hard 15 and stood

Player 2 (BR3) got a hard 12 and took 3 hits for a 21

Player 3 (BR2) (you) got a hard 16 and hit to 19.

Player 2 (BR3) won.

Is that right?

If I've understood correctly, then a dealer total of 17, 18, or 19 would have won it for askdick, having stood on 19.

 

More data

For bets above 250 the following was obtained.

.Bet.............................Advance Prob

260-330..........................0.4131
340................................0.4222
350-480..........................0.4314
490................................0.3215


The 0.4726 figure for a bet of 10 consists of a probability of 0.4629 to win outright and a 0.0194 probability of tying with BR1.
0.4629 + 1/2(0.0194) = 0.4726

At the table I would have very likely have bet 480 holding and extra chip over BR1 (0.4314)

Next likely (but I probably would miss) I would bet 250 holding 245 so that I could survive the push-loss swing against BR3. (0.4455)

It wouldn't have occured to me about a shut out of BR3 by betting 10. (0.4726)


..............................BlueLight

 

Have you accounted for the possible BR3 BJ?

Would this be the right method? :-

P(BR2 advances) = P(NOT BR3 BJ) * ( P(BR1 loses) + P(BR2 and BR1 tie, then BR2 wins tie-break) )
= 0.95 * (.48 + .02/2)
= 0.47
(approximately, using the 2dp figures from Wong)

 

numbers

Can't dispute the numbers. Thanks Blue Light.

I think I would have bet 240 with the 30 second time frame even knowing I could lock-out BR3. You guys have already pointed out that $10 is the best bet, and I agree, but my 240 bet does offer some advantages over some of the bets offered here.


1. BR1 must win to advance
2. BR2 wins if BR1 loses, BR3 loses or pushes and BR2 wins or pushes
BR2 can win if BR3 wins an all in bet, with a split win or DD, also
leaving 15 if BR1 loses and a BR3 all in loses.
3. BR3 only wins if he wins and both BR1 and 2 lose.

I like to have more options at my disposal. A bet of 10 does not allow
for many options.

I know, I know, its the math . Maybe that's why I haven't won a
tournament in nearly a year.

 

The tables

For Colin:

When I came up with the 0.4726 figure for a bet of 10, I referred to the 3 player outcome tables with BJ that have 64 possible outcomes as follows;

P1............505.........500
P2............240.........240
P3............495..........10 , 20 , 30 , etc

..............P1......P2......P3....................Probability

..1...........J........J........J......................0.00010
..2...........J........J.......W......................0.00087
..3...........J........J.......P.......................0.00019
..4...........J........J.......L.......................0.00097
..5...........J.......W.......J.......................0.00087
...
...
...
64...........L.......L........L.......................0.21978

J=winning BJ.......W=normal win..........P=push........L=loss

I assigned starting the starting bankrolls to each player P1, P2, P3 and the already made bets to players P1 and P2. Then giving P3 a bet of 10 for each of the 64 separate outcomes and their respective outcomes I recorded the result of who won. For the first 5 outcomes P1 wins with his 500 BJ. For the 64 run P3 wins when everyone else loses. I add up all the probabilities of when P3 wins and get 0.4726. Next I try a bet of 30 and do the same all over again. Of course I don't do this but let the computer do it for me using the saved data of outcomes and their respective probabilities.

The program takes into account blackjacks. Note that it still possible for P3 to win when P2 gets a blackjack since it has to be a winning blackjack. Sometimes the dealer can have a blackjack too. The tables take that into consideration when P2 pushes it could be a BJ push.

Nobody can figure all this out in their head in 30 seconds but a shutout bet of 10 is good because it shuts out P2. Also not far behind is a bet of 250 keeping the low and surviving the push-loss swing against P2. I think we miss advancing to final tables by making bigger blunders.


............................BlueLight

 

Bj-versus split

BLUELIGHT

A bet of 250 covers a BJ by BR3. Apparently this bet is better than 240 which would allow for a split if possible. My question----I guess--- is how much greater, for the bettor, is covering the BJ over the value of a split hand.

It seems it would be close, unless the other variables sway the final result.

Mike

 

Thanks BlueLight.

I think it can be almost as hard to describe these things unambiguously as it is to work them out.

It was the phrase 'a 0.0194 probability of tying with BR1' that had me slightly confused. I guess 0.0194 is the probability of tying for first place (i.e. incorporating BR3's lack of a winning BJ), not just of finishing on the same number of chips as BR1.

 

FMike - I can see no reason why you'd ever want to split in this situation. You cannot take the high away from BR1.
The split would merely add the possibility of a loss-push vs. BR3.
Good thinking, though, trying to come up with something that allows more options.

 

Thanks Left Nut

Suppose, for the sake of arguing-debating, that BR1 is dealt a stiff hand of say 14, BR3 has 20 and you as BR2,have a pair of 8s, and the dealer shows any 2-6.


BR1 stands on his stiff, your decision now ----HIT OR STAND----if you hit and bust, you still have the low, but would it not be an advantage, if you could split the 8s, (240 bet as opposed to 250), have 2 starting hands that are better than your original hand, and would beat BR3s hand if both your hands win and BR3 also wins. You also have the low of 15 dollars if everyone loses. You will not win many hands with a pair of 8s-either standing or hitting.

I am confused as to why a split hand would not be beneficial in this particular case or that we exclude that possibility altogether by betting more than half our bankroll. You guys are good, and I read you daily, so please put this in terms that a senior can understand.


Thanks guys---and girls. I have learned a lot from your post and hope to learn more.

 

Thanks Monkey, I agree with your statement on the lockout bet of 10, but am debating a bet of 250 versus 240.

I guess I am rather thick and missing something in relation to the 2nd or third best bet. Nuff said on my part.

 

Why I liked $110 bet...

Mike if you split you are then giving up the low to both players,that is with a $240 bet. When I first started the question what about a $110 bet instead of the $10 bet I had that number for several reasons.

1) If BR2 won and BR1 loss/push I would win.
2) If BR2 won/push I would bet BR3 on their straight win.
3) If BR2 won and BR3 hit a BJ I would cover them.
4) If BR2 got a DD or split hand I could do so without giving up the low.

Mike as Bluelight pointed out in his chart a straight bet of $110 works the same as a bet up to $250, but any bet over $125 that is doubled either on DD or split would give up the low. So to answer your question, I wouldn't split the 8/8's, you can't afford to risk the extra $240 and give up the low with the $240 bet, now with $110 - $125 I probably would split them.

Any bet a player makes is suppose to be in his/her best interest to win/advance from the round. As most all here know not all players like taking the low (the $10 bet, which is the best bet possible here). The point of my question was for those that play a more aggressive game, what would the better aggressive bet be.

Plus I just tried to keep the thread going a little longer and give members something else to think about.

 

FMike, here's my thought process on this one, using your changed dealt hands.

If I stand on the 16, the chances are better that the dealer will turn that 2-6 into a hand than he/she will bust. If the dealer makes 17, 18, or 19, I lose on the swing. If the dealer makes 20 or 21, I advance. If I hit and bust, nothing has changed, the dealer still must make 20 or 21 for me to advance. Therefore, I hit and hope that I'll get the 4 or 5 on my 16 that will take BR3 right out of the equation. Actually, any small card will help since it'll reduce the number of dealer possibilities that will cause the swing.

If I split that 8-8 and don't make at least 20 out of one of them, now I've taken the dealer 20 right out of my list of "saves" because I'll lose two bets and drop below BR3's push.