WSOB IV: Episode 5

okay, the last hand

Jarek optimal play should be very specific and based on results of Darrel’s split hands.
If Darrel had split his Tens then there would be three types of situation (and three different plays – surrender, hit to at least 18 plus, and double down) where Jarek could have won.
Darrell loses both bets and Jarek surrenders or have a better outcome,
Darrel loses one and wins or pushes the other split, or pushes both hands and Jarek wins his hand,
Darrel pushes one and wins the other split and Jarek wins doubled bet.

Darrel’s split and playing no bust strategy results in 21 different combinations if we distinguish: stiff hand, and totals 17 through 21.
Split Tens loses both hands 21.3%, and that would be Jarek success number if he blindly surrendered all of his hands, but this number does not apply as Jarek’s play should be drastically improved by seeing Darrel’s both totals.

By the way, RKuczek, your guess was a close one, splitting tens, no bust, vs. dealer 5 final results are: +2 (win both hands) 49.8%, +1 is 3.1%, 0 is 17.5%, -1 is 8.3%, and –2 (lose both hands) is 21.3%.

In a few cases decisions are easy, but in many it is not apparent.
For example, with Tens split resulting in two stiffs (15% of all Tens splits) surrender is the best play. But at the table I guess I would surrender any hand except twenty and blackjack if my opponent split produced hands with neither one being twenty or twenty-one.

Chance for winning doubling 15 with power chip vs. dealer 5 is 43.9%, but calculating other odds requires more time.
Maybe I can get to it after the fireworks

Happy 4th of 7th.

S. Yama

 

excellent analysis

of Jarek's options by S. Yama -

I think it looks like Darryl made a mistake on the final hand -

by splitting he could have limited Jarek to about 21% chance of winning - by standing he gave him a 44% chance of winning - that's a significant difference -

having to make a decision during actual tournament play - hard to say what I might have done - probably the same as Darryl - really boils down to having to quickly calculate probabilities given the impact of Jarek having a power chip - if no power chip - I would think the split would still be optimal - by a few percent - as Jarek would still be 27% to win the double down - plus a very small percentage to push while Darryl lost -

 

Final hand

Here is one I haven't heard, but I have had to to get more money out to advance twice by this. Split the tens, get the ace, and double down the eleven. Which he would of still had a 21 on the first hand and who knows how the rest would of turned out. You know some crazy players would do this even if they don't need to. It was still luck in the end that decided who got first. It could of went either way.

 

mostly surrender

Lots of interesting plays.
I have to admit that benefits of splitting Tens without doing the exact analysis seemed to me lesser than they are and I would not call decision to stand on total twenty a big mistake, though in this particular case it offered 19% better performance against the opponent optimal play.

My short analysis shows that optimal plays for player having hard fifteen against opponent splitting Tens, no bust, are as follow:
Surrender against weaker split hands -all that have totals of nineteen or less and 19/20 and 20/20 (they are 53% of all splits) except
hit to 18 vs. splits stiff/20 and stiff/21 (they are almost 30% of all splits)
dd to 18 vs. splits 17/20 and 17/21
dd to 19 vs. splits 18/20 and 18/21
dd to 20 vs. split 19/21
dd to 21 vs. split 20/21
Such play would result in 25.1% chance of beating split Tens.
Some plays are within one percent of each other, for example surrender and hitting to 18 vs. 18/20.
Hitting to 18 and hitting to19 vs. first hand stiff or 17 and second hand 20 or 21 are close (less than 1%), but there was no cases where hitting to 19 would be better than hitting to 18.
Talking about close decisions: difference in effectiveness of surrender, hit to 18, hit to 19, or dd to 18 against split stiff/19 are all within 3.5%!

Happy 5th of 7th to all.

S. Yama

 

minor correction

Well to advance Jarek could also push the dealer with 21.
This is another [10.82 x (1/13 + (7/13 x 1/13))] = 1.28
So Jarek has slightly over 45% to advance.

 

Nice game Jarek and Darrell!

Sorry that this message comes late to the discussion. I have one question and a couple of comments. I'll ask the question first. How does one find this 'thread' after tomorrow, when WSOB number six will seeming take this place; or how could I find the discussions on WSOB game numbers 1, 2 , 3 and 4, today?

Great analysis of the last hand situation by S. Yama. I believe Darrell's better bet was $36,000 retaining the low, but $40,000 was an excellent bet too. It could have been the best bet had Darrell believed that his opponent might fall into the surrender trap, but knowing that Darrell knows Jarek well, this possibility was simply NOT possible. Given Darrell's bet, I believe his best play to be the split. The dealers chances of busting are about 44%, and that is the worst case senario for the splitting action, should two bad cards fall. The upside is a near lock with two face cards or aces. Any ONE good card takes away Jarek's chances of winning by doubling without catching a good card. (He would have to refuse any ace or two with his P.C., and try for 18 or better.) Given the fact that Jarek will see Darrell's totals is a big downside, but the fact that Darrell has a P.C. himself, is a big upside.

By the way, has anybody seen Darrell of late? Did he fall off the face of the tournament world after this horribly bad beat? Maybe he returned to the world of rock 'n roll and bad drugs! Wherever you are, buddy, please don't get any more tatoos, and come back to tournament play, when you can tell me the correct spelling of your name; Darryl, Darell, or Darrell!

Jarek, I believe you could have make a better bet on your elimination hand. Please understand that this is only Monday morning quarterbacking, and not to disparage your play under the lights and the time limit. You bet $15,000 after Hans but before Caroline bet. As you know that Caroline should match your bet with her slight lead, I will leave her out of the picture, even if you already suspected she might do something else. Your bet covered Han's potential natural with your win, but it exposed you to losing to the swing. As the swing will occur more often, a $10,000 bet should be better. This allows you to still cover Hans if he should get all his chips in play, and to double should he get the Blackjack.

In spite of all the comments above, I have to give both players high marks in tournament craftsmanship!

 

I'm sure a new thread will be started titled "Episode 6" so Episodes 1 through 5 will live on and be accessible 'til the end of time - well maybe not that long but long enough.

 

On Darrell splitting

Darrell's chances for splitting are better than what was calculated since he too had the power chip available.
After Darrell stood, Jarek's chances are "relatively" easy to figure when he has a power chip (I got .4509). However if Darrell splits then he can use his chip if he gets a high stiff (eg 16). If on one of the split 10's if he gets a 2 for 12, should he hit again and use the power chip if he busts or simply replace the 2 and hit again? According to one of Ken Smith's posts you can use the PC to replace a hit card that busts you. However I have never seen in any of the episodes the PC chip used to unbust a hand even in a double down.


.......................BlueLight

 

Thanks

Thanks Swog, I'll get the hang of this new-fangeled computer stuff yet! Oh, by the way; what's a forum? ............................Just kidding!

 

Archive

I wish there was an archive where I could go back and watch the shows? Is there such a website for this? Thank you.

 

Bets of 10K and 15K

Hey Norm21, don’t feel sorry that your message came late into the discussion. You did post it. And you did it in suave manner, and you found interesting play that possibly could have been played better – but there is so much more to this play - see my comments below.
I have to admit that I was a little disappointed that other than discussing the last hand nobody posted any questions or comments on other hands I detailed in message 19th in this thread. Too bad, I had a bit of free time and was willing to talk about all last nine hands, and there were some plays and bets that tournament players should have found interesting and probably would play them differently.

In knock out round:
Elimin. hand .. Caroline ......... Darrel ........... Hans ............... Jarek ..............
Bankroll ......... 128 ............. 159.7 ............. 67 .................. 127.5
Bet .................. 2.5 .............. 2.5............. 50 .................... 15

Bets of 15K and 10K seemed to me of equal value but at the table I preferred 15K to about the same degree as now, after the fact, I prefer 10K – which means slightly (lol), for the following reasons:
Winning 15K covers Hans’s blackjack, which bet of 10K does not – this is the most obvious reason but not the most important.
I was prepared to surrender most of my hands that had a chance of being swung. Hans could not beat me without doubling or blackjack if I surrendered. In the worst case scenario I would be surrendering less than 6% of my bankroll in not so common situations for a guarantee to have Hans being eliminated from the round. I didn’t expect Hans to put up a fight by adjusting play to “must gain” over me strategy, so the chance of a swing was practically next to zero.
Also, we had plenty of time to know exactly each other bankrolls and Caroline knew that had Hans won max bet she could afford to lose up to 10K. She most likely knew, being not only very funny, but also very smart, that matching my bet would be a good strategy, especially if my bet was 10K or smaller.
My bet of 10K would very likely be matched.
My bet of 15K increased chance of Caroline either betting small (which she did) to avoid elimination if swung by Hans. This carried chance of forcing her to play “avoid both players win”-effectively giving me most pushes when Hans doubled or had blackjack. But most importantly, since keeping up with my “high bet” required vulnerability for swing to Hans, chance of her betting more than 15K increased– which would give me ideal position of having anything but full swing to Hans and low to Caroline.

 

I think 20K

There's no doubt that 15K prevales over 10K. If Hans' hand is NOT BJ or DD then SR is in force, if it is double hand then Jarek should win his hand (10K or 15K doesn't make any difference), if it is BJ then with 15K Jarek has to win one bet (~44%), but with 10K he has to win DD (~30%).
Now as we can see there is a room for even bigger bet (up to 20K).
Does it give Jarek something extra? I think a little...
Considering Darrel's lose (even with 2.5K min bet), Jarek could become a leader with his 20K BJ (on DD - 15K or 20K doesn't make any difference)