Nothing new in this post, but just a recap to make sure everyone understands this exchange. There is a change in the optimal strategy for Bradley, depending on whether the dealer hits or stands on soft 17... Ignoring the count, or assuming a neutral count: If the dealer hits soft 17, Bradley should stand with his 16 vs Ace. However, if the dealer stands on soft 17 (this tournament did), then he should hit the 16. In fact, if he draws an Ace for 17, he should hit again. As pointed out by S, this detail is only for the truly obsessive.
Comments and questions on round 3 First, I 'd like to say the analysis here is impressive. You guys (toonce and ken) really nailed my mistakes! In my hotel room before the tournament, I stumbled across this site. The very concepts of going for a swing, or taking the low or high were new to me. I hadn't heard of Ken before, but it was clear that I'd be a huge underdog against him. That said, I had reasons for every play, even amidst my mistakes. Take my 3K bet on round 4. I had determined that the dealer's hole was reasonably likely to be a 4. If the four is in the hole, the player has roughly a 25% edge. This brings up the question, how much should you bet if you have an x% advantage? Is it best to bet enough to capture the lead, plus a comfortable cushion that depends on the number of hands and competitors remaining (say 1.5*sqrt(26)*(minbet))? Or should I bet the kelly optimal amount? My plays in rounds 10 and 14 were based on following Bradley's reads. I picked up on this when he surrendered 18 v 10. Don't be deceived by his "Aw, shucks" persona. Winning the Blackjack Ball twice in a row isn't sheer luck! Not only that, his ability to drink and play is most impressive. On round 30, Bradley decided to avoid a head-to-head playoff, figuring he'd have the worst of it. I don't know about that. First, he'd guarantee himself second place. Locking out Bobby must have some significant value. Second, I'd still have a chance to make a mistake. What would be the optimal bet for each of us? What if you take into account Bradley's reading the dealer (and my inference based on his play), and the shuffle track coming out? Plus, if we're tied after the first playoff hand, we play another round, but Bradley now has position.
Micky, I seriously doubt that you qualify as a huge underdog to anyone, even with a lack of tournament experience. Our brief conversations left me with a keen sense of how quickly you picked up on tournament strategy. I appreciate your post, because it again highlights the many different approaches to the game that were in play during these rounds. Your question about optimal play for the final hand with all the extra information is likely one that won't be answered satisfactorily, certainly not by me. As for the hand 4 question of how much to bet, I would discount the value of any Kelly-influenced decision, and would instead focus on specific goals that could help your strategic position. Even though it's early in the round, if I thought I had a big edge on a hand, I'd probably shoot for a lead of just over a half-max-bet. That would have the most value later on, without risking the farm.
Micky, how did you know that the dealer's upcard was likely to be a 4? And how would you know that without knowing what your own hand is likely to be?
It stood to reason Given the fact that the dealers don't peek at Mohegan Sun, or in most places that offer games in the world, Tiki probably had no experience with same prior to this tournament. Given the fact that I had a good lead on a read of her, combined with the infamous "double peek" at her hole on that particular hand, it stood to reason that there was a reasonable likelihood that the small card that we thought she had in the hole was probably a four. On the subject matter of drinking beer while I play for cover, all I can say is practice, baby. Practice.
Now that I have reread Mr. Rosa's post Yes, I see. There were so many little tricks that were going on in that round that, again, really only those at the table knew about and in no way whatsoever could the television coverage account for. I, being the player at first base, was presented the cut on the first shoe and I cut a four to, what I believed to be, card number 56. I informed Mickey, a friend of mine, who was sitting to my left, of this. Good for friendly relationships. Bad for tournament strategy. Well, maybe not. As it turns out, I was off by four cards and the four presented itself on card number 60, not card number 56. If nothing else, had scoring for such expertise be allowed, I believe that our table would have taken top honors. Unfortunately, for me, knowing more about how to get an edge and make money at the game of blackjack doesn't necessarily translate into being able to win a tournament.
Damn! Kudos to you Bradley for this awesome steer! A skill I never perfected, and I figured it would play a factor at some point in the tourney -- just glad I wasn't heads up with you in a situation where you knew what slug was coming next & i had no clue -- talk about having an edge. Rock on, -hollywood dave.
Back at you. Kudos to you Hollywood Dave for making it to the next round! Tournament blackjack skills and live money blackjack skills, as those that read this site know, are two distinct animals. So many uninformed people believe that counting cards and some of those other "goodies" that I have in my arsenal make one a better tournament player (Believe it or not I have not mentioned all of the tricks that were used at my table in my posts to date). Not so, of course. However, when combined with skillful tournament play, they can be devastating. I'm going to be playing more tournaments over the next few weeks, in part, to prep for the Hilton showdown next month, and because I enjoy them and the challenge they present. Will I see you in a few hours at the New Frontier? Best of success in all of your endeavors Hollywood Dave.
New Viewers This is just a bump for the people seeing the show for the first time. Bradley's hole card read and subsequent ten splits by Micky have generated a lot of speculation on other boards. I've been directing them here for the straight scoop. Sentry
